On Friday 23rd of February, public officials from Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and Turkmenistan gathered in Herat to mark the start of work on the Afghanistan section of the TAPI pipeline.
History of the project
The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline is a proposed project to deliver natural gas from the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan – one of the world’s six largest – via Afghanistan and Pakistan into India. A pipeline project between the two countries has been planned since the 1990s, with varying degrees of feasibility since, mostly due to the conditions in Afghanistan.
To pass through Afghanistan meant dealing with the Taliban, but after the United States named them as complicit in the Al-Qaeda attacks against American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, Unocal withdrew their support from the Central Asian Gas consortium. The instability in the aftermath of the American invasion also made the project unviable, as it meant running the line through areas of de facto Taliban control.
However, between 2008 and 2012, the situation in southern Afghanistan was considered settled enough, and agreements were made between all the four involved nations and the framework for the project was settled upon.
Lack of evidence on TAPI progress in Turkmenistan
Despite work on the pipeline starting in December 2015, the Turkmenistan section of it still remains something of a mystery. No photographic evidence of its existence has yet been shown, and all the information that exists on its progress comes from either the Turkmenistan government or the (effectively state-controlled) media, raising questions as to how the construction is actually progressing, especially given the overall lack of experience of Turkmengaz, the state company and leading partner for the project.
Security risks
The most pressing security risk regarding the pipeline is, of course, the Taliban. The proposed route for the Afghan section of the pipeline has it running alongside the Kandahar-Herat highway, an area that has been historically notorious not only for Taliban activity, but also other armed groups undertaking kidnappings and robberies. More recent attacks suggest that security is still a major concern along the highway.
The Taliban, as well as the splinter faction Afghanistan Islamic Emirate, have both pledged to not attack the pipeline, but even if they are to be believed, this does not mean that other groups like Islamic State will not consider it, or that they will not instead use the threat of violence to extort money from companies involved in the project to finance their insurgency.
To a lesser extent, these issues are also present with regards to Pakistan. Passing through Quetta means considering the possibility of attacks by both Baloch nationalist movements and Islamic movements in conflict with the Pakistani state. While the overall condition of the Baloch insurgency has been deteriorating in recent years, the recent emergence of Islamic State in the province has led to fears that the recent surge in violence is not an anomaly, but rather a sign of a declining security situation.
Marc Simms is an occasional blogger for Proelium Law LLP. Marc holds a MLitt in Terrorism Studies and a Masters in International Relations, both from St Andrews. His particular interests are in emerging international security issues, unconventional warfare and terrorism.
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