Proelium Law Weekly Country Assessment – 21/03/2018
The Proelium Law weekly Country Assessments, for the use of our clients, colleagues and contacts, focus on Iraq/Syria, Libya and Afghanistan/Pakistan. These reports will be updated weekly on a Wednesday.
“Turkish forces and allied Syrian Free Army groups took control of Afrin on 18 Mar 18 following 56 days of battle with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrated the victory, Kurdish factions warned of a retaliation to make Afrin an “ongoing nightmare” for Turkey.”
Syria/Iraq: Country Assessment 21 March 2018
ASSESSMENT: (1) Anna Campbell (26) died during operations in disputed Afrin where Turkish forces under OP OLIVE BRANCH aim to dislodge Kurdish factions. The death is likely to draw deep criticism of Turkey who despite condemnation from many NATO allies, continues to target Kurds in Afrin. (2) Regime forces have been accused of unprovoked attacks against opposition forces allied with the US in Eastern Syria. It is likely the Regime will prioritise control of oil assets in Eastern Syria once Idlib and Eastern Ghouta are under Regime control. (3) The rocket attack follows warnings from Islamist extremist factions in Eastern Ghouta, where the Regime continues an intense bombardment campaign. Incidents such as these will likely increase as opposition factions become increasingly pressured, it is likely the Regime will retaliate with increased force. (4) The Regime continues to deny that it was developing nuclear reactor. The announcement more than a decade later is a clear message to Iran that military sites can be detected and destroyed. (5) With finite investigative and legal resources, the system is overwhelmed and vulnerable to miscarriages of justice. The broad scope of Iraqi terrorism laws has also caused alarm. (6) It is likely the PKK are motivated to attack Turkey in response to OP OLIVE BRANCH.
SYRIA/IRAQ INDEPTH: 21 March 2018
Syria: Turkey in “total” control of Afrin
Turkish forces and allied Syrian Free Army groups took control of Afrin on 18 Mar 18 following 56 days of battle with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrated the victory, Kurdish factions warned of a retaliation to make Afrin an “ongoing nightmare” for Turkey.
It is unclear as yet how Turkey and the FSA will hold the ground at Afrin. Reports suggest the FSA, with Turkish support, has set up a temporary administration of 30 representatives to oversee the restructuring of security in the city. Reports suggest the FSA will seek to establish a police and military force in the city.
In the short to medium term, sources claim Turkey may seek to resettle some of the 500,000 Syrian Arab refugees from the Afrin area who currently reside in refugee camps in Turkey. It is likely the UN and humanitarian partners will seek access to the city to assess the needs of the displaced families.
Now that Afrin has been recaptured, with relatively little loss of life for the Turkish and FSA forces, Turkey may be spurred to extend its area of operations to include Manbij. The US is likely to intensify pressure on Turkey to cease operations, given the 1,5000 Kurdish deaths and 200,000 civilian refugees created during the Afrin offensive.
It is likely the YPG will shift towards guerilla warfare in Afrin, fixing Turkey away from Manbij in the short term. International diplomacy will be required to extend the effects beyond the medium term.
NORTH AFRICA COUNTRY ASSESSMENT: 21 MARCH 2018
ASSESSMENT: (1) Coercion, discrimination and intimidation remain key threats to voters in Libya, undermining the perception of free and fair elections and likely to spur conflict between competing administrations post-election. (2) Italy has adopted a controversial policy with the Libyan Coastguard to return migrants to detention centers in Libya, which have been associated with violence, rapes and slavery. The Spanish rescue crews maintain they acted in the interest of the women and children aboard the ship in a precedent that will concern Italy. (3) Further details regarding the strikes is yet to be released, but in the context of wider arrests conducted by the LNA of targets associated with al-Qaeda linked groups and IS militants it is likely this is an extension of those activities. It is likely Haftar will intensify such efforts to bolster his reputation as tough on terrorists prior to the upcoming election. (4) The reports further previous reporting which alleged that IS and Syrian extremist factions have sought to relocate to Libya in small numbers since the fall of the Caliphate. These pockets of extremism will likely seek to capitalize on any discontent associated with the upcoming elections and will likely seek to disrupt the process with tactics refined in Syria. (5) Saif announced his campaign will focus on the reform of Libya for all Libyans, expressing a focus on inclusivity. The International Criminal Court alleges crimes against humanity against Saif and has been sentenced to death by a court in Tripoli.
AF/PAK COUNTRY ASSESSMENT: 21 MARCH 2018
COMMENT: (1) The troops are part of the Aug 2017 growth plan as part of Op RESOLUTE SUPPORT. 4,000 recruits are expected to graduate by April 2018 as special forces units and special police units require reinforcement to tackle the Taliban and IS growth. (2) The attack occurred o a busy street as Afghans marked Nowruz Day to celebrate the start of Spring. The attack follows assurances from the Ministry of Interior that the celebrations would be safe following an increase in security. (3) The incident indicates the potential reaction of factions within the Taliban should regional or district level commanders engage in dialogue with the Government, indicative of why the public invitation from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has gone unanswered.(4) Authorities were forced to make concessions in the face of the protests, stating medical staff will be exempt from military checkpoints in tribal areas to avoid such incidents in future. Pakistan’s ISI faces criticism for accusing international NGOs of spying, hindering operations and forcing many to leave the country. (5) The announcement made by US Department of Defense coincides with an announcement that the US will not actively pursue targets who cross the Pakistan border from Afghanistan, demonstrating the respect for Pakistan’s sovereignty and the renewed emphasis on a Pakistan led independent initiative to target terrorism which destabilizes both Afghanistan and India.
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