Proelium Law Weekly Country Assessment – 14/03/2018
The Proelium Law weekly Country Assessments, for the use of our clients, colleagues and contacts, focus on Iraq/Syria, Libya and Afghanistan/Pakistan. These reports will be updated weekly on a Wednesday.
“Following the horrific scenes shared across social media showing inhumane conditions in migrant detention centers, the EU was forced to take action to alleviate the pressure on the infrastructure, 16,000 migrants had been repatriated in 2017”
Syria/Iraq: Country Assessment 14 March 2018
ASSESSMENT: (1) With shaping operations almost complete to surround the area, it is likely that in the coming 10 to 14 days Turkey and rebel factions will intensify artillery shelling before a final ground operation to clear the area. The operation is likely to garner negative media attention as social media is used effectively to show Kurdish suffering, likely to spur further small scale protests in Western cities with significant Kurdish populations. (2)&(3) The Regime advanced into several districts of the enclave, retaking territory held by rebels since 2012. The group’s vow to keep fighting sets a worrying tone for the future of the enclave, where 1,000 people were killed during Feb 18 alone as the Regime assault continues. As a key security objective, the Regime will continue to focus on recapturing the area in its entirety with little regard for civilian cost. (4) The evacuees included those in need of urgent medical care, but represents a very small number of the some 500 in need of such care. Elsewhere, up to 300 fighters belonging to extremist groups were evacuated to Idlib under Regime agreements. (5) The 5 month ban was a reaction to the Kurdish Independence Referendum 25 Sep 17. The Kurds were largely isolated ad weak after the vote and have made many concessions to achieve a thaw in relations. (6) NSTR (7)
SYRIA/IRAQ INDEPTH: 14 March 2018
Iraq : The Controversial Budget Bill
Iraqi President Fuad Masum rejected the controversial $88.5bn 2018 Budget Bill, returning it to Parliament for an expected 31 amendments. The budget is based on projected oil exports in 2018 of 3.9bpd, at a market value of $46 USD per barrel.
The Bill was approved by Parliament on 3 Mar 18 and was immediately met with hostility from Kurdish representatives who oppose the region’s reduced budget allocation. President Masum was a co-founder of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Furthermore, Sunni and Shia Arabs also opposed the budget, delaying the approval from Jan until 3 Mar 18.
The President highlighted issues with the allocation of power enabled through the budget allocation that would award ministerial powers that were in conflict with the constitution. A Kurdish source noted “while the budget empowers the cabinet to restructure ministries, the constitution limits that authority to legislation.”
It is likely the significantly reduced budget allocation to the Kurdish Region underpins President Masum’s decision. The Kurdish Region’s budget fell from 17% to just 12.6%, likely to irk the Kurds in the climate of investment and restructuring in Iraq. Baghdad’s stringent auditing of public spending in the region has also caused issues as Kurds protest the many strings attached to the now reduced funds. Kurdish representatives have threated to withdraw from the political process, claiming a breach of Art 9 of the Iraqi constitution which demands that the Kurdish budget reflects the size of the population.
Shia factions want greater allocation for the Southern oil producing regions and public salaries for Shia militias who fought against ISIS. Sunni Arabs lobbied for greater funds to reconstruct the damaged areas following war, which are predominantly Sunni Arab. Iraq may promise portions of the $30bn in foreign investment to assure these three powerful factions to avoid political deadlock.
NORTH AFRICA COUNTRY ASSESSMENT: 14 MARCH 2018
ASSESSMENT: (1) A new Italian Government has yet to be formed, but the traditional political balance within Italy has shifted from center-left and center-right to populist parties. It is likely the Popularist movements will take a more hard line stance against migration. (2) Following the horrific scenes shared across social media showing inhumane conditions in migrant detention centers, the EU was forced to take action to alleviate the pressure on the infrastructure. (3) UK Ambassador to Libya Frank Baker met with Libyan Prime Minister Fayez Serraj to discuss the programe, aiming to provide training for 300 Libyan doctors, 600 nurses and 150 administrators to develop the healthcare facilities across Libya. (4) The conflict in Sabha has attracted the attention of rival administrations in the East and West of the country. Gen Haftar demanded that foreign fighters leave Southern Libya or risk being forcibly removed. Prime Minister Serraj announced the formation of a military force to secure the South, which could place the two rival armies in close proximity in a dangerous stand off in the wake of elections. (5) The move is an indication that the number of Libyans registering to vote abroad may be low, the HNEC must be careful to ensure inclusion is maximised as it is likely the result of the vote will be heavily scrutinised and challenged by Gen Haftar if the result is unfavorable. (6) Crude oil production at Libya’s largest oi field, el Sharara was suspended last week following damage to a pipe caused by a localised protest.
AF/PAK COUNTRY ASSESSMENT: 14 MARCH 2018
COMMENT: (1) Mattis’ key message was one of support to the political peace process, buoyed by President Ashraf Ghani’s pledged to recognise the Taliban as a political party to encourage dialogue. (2) The district is on a lucrative drug smuggling route, attractive to the Taliban for revenue streams. Afghan forces surged to the area to successfully recapture the district. The incident demonstrates the Taliban’s unwillingness to engage in the political peace process and the relative weakness of Afghan forces in rural areas distant from Kabul. (3) Germany is likely to redirect resources from Iraq, where it announced it would reduce troop numbers from 1,200 to 800 during 2018 and draw down the training of Kurdish Peshmerga forces. (4) Insurgent suicide bombs and IEDs caused almost two thirds of the reported fatalities and casualties. Pro-government forces caused 20% of the deaths and injuries, including 2% caused by international actors. (5) Both Pakistan and India are investigating the allegations as tensions continue to escalate. The allegations include threats of violence towards the children of Pakistani diplomats in India. (6) Given the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, it is not clear whether Pakistan will participate and if so if this is simply to counter India’s participation. India delivered the first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan using the Chabahar Port.
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