Marc Simms is an occasional blogger for Proelium Law LLP. Marc holds a MLitt in Terrorism Studies and a Masters in International Relations, both from St Andrews. His particular interests are in emerging international security issues, unconventional warfare, and terrorism.
No end in sight for Qatar dispute
The diplomatic rupture between Qatar and a Saudi-led coalition has now been going on for over a month, with no clear way to resolving the dispute apparent.
Most recently Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain have extended the deadline for Qatar to accept a list of demands which were originally issued on June 23rd, and include: shutting down of media outlets such as the state-funded Al-Jazeera news organisation; severing ties with the Muslim Brotherhood; stopping the funding of extremist entities; downgrading ties with Iran; and Qatar aligning itself more closely with the Gulf Co-operation Council.
Hardline Saudi stance can only lead to escalation
From the very start of this dispute, Saudi Arabia has pursued demands which Qatar was never going to accept, and by making those demands non-negotiable it has ensured that the conflict would escalate without providing any kind of process towards a reasonable solution that can be accepted by both sides.
Beyond passing secondary sanctions, Saudi Arabia may take steps to remove Qatar from the Gulf Co-operation Council entirely. The Arab quartet may be loathe to do this given the extensive Qatari investments and business interests around the world and the impact on key overseas allies such as the USA and UK. This, however, will likely have little effect on Qatar’s willingness to accede to Saudi Arabia’s demands, and would have a number of negative knock-on effects for both countries and their established foreign and military policies.
Both Russia and the USA are working to resolve the dispute and have a keen interest in seeing the pre-June status quo restored, but their ability to control outcomes in the Middle East is highly questionable at this point in time. The possible disconnect between the White House and the State Department over Qatar policy is likely also complicating American attempts at a resolution.
“Vladimir Putin stressed the importance of political-diplomatic efforts aimed at overcoming differences of opinion and the normalization of the difficult situation that exists,” said the statement on the talks between Putin and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.
If the US and Russia fail to moderate the Arab quartet’s demands, another possible way this crisis could resolve itself would be through regime change in Qatar. Needless to say, this would be dangerously destabilising.
A “political gambler” in Riyadh
Western diplomats believe that the key Saudi official behind the demands on Qatar is the recently elevated Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. As the former Defence Minister for the Kingdom, he has overseen the Saudi-led intervention into Yemen, an intervention which has been widely criticised for its brutal and indiscriminate approach. The new Crown Prince has been variously described as a “hothead” and a “political gambler who is destabilising the Arab world through proxy wars.”
In particular, he is noted for his extremely hawkish position on Iran and his desire to see Saudi Arabia take on a more forthright leadership role in the Middle East. His approach with Qatar strongly suggests that Saudi Arabia is preparing to take a far more pro-active role against countries it feels are too close to the Iranian regime. Even if the crisis with Qatar is resolved, this is likely only the precursor to future aggressive moves.
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